Sheinbaum, Borderlands, Face High-Stakes Challenges as Trump Returns to Power
Mexican officers investigate near the entrance of a man-made tunnel discovered on January 11, 2025, connecting Juárez and El Paso. As President Trump is sworn in for his second term, concerns over undocumented migration and an opioid crisis, in some cases linked to Mexican cartels, remain key priorities in Mexico-U.S. relations. Photo by Omar Ornelas//El Paso Times/Puente News Collaborative
With Trump back as president, controlling Congress and a conservative Supreme Court, Mexico’s Sheinbaum administration braces for strained relations. U.S. public support for hardline policies targeting Mexico is on the rise, and looming energy reforms and trade negotiations add to the challenge.
Editor’s note: This story was co-published with Puente News Collaborative in partnership with palabra. Puente News Collaborative is a bilingual nonprofit newsroom, convener and funder dedicated to high-quality, fact-based news and information from the U.S.-Mexico border.
MEXICO CITY – Whenever President Claudia Sheinbaum responds to Donald Trump’s remarks about Mexico — whether it’s his threats of tariffs, deportation plans, or claims that her country is run by drug cartels — her answer is consistent, almost mechanical.
“I think there will be a good relationship with President Trump,” Sheinbaum, 62, often states, maintaining a measured tone in the face of Trump’s criticisms towards Mexico.
Like millions in Mexico and along the border, Sheinbaum appears to hope for the best while preparing for the worst. In cities along the 2,000-mile U.S. Mexico border, from Tijuana to Brownsville and midway in El Paso, business leaders, border enforcement agents, residents and migrants and their advocates all face navigating what is certain to be a stark, if still undefined, reality.
“Trump talks big, but that doesn’t mean he will follow through,” said Gerald “Gerry” Schwebel, an executive vice president at International Bank of Commerce, a Laredo bank deeply involved in cross border trade. “It’s important not to dwell on what he says, but on what he does.”
In Canada, the U.S.’s second-largest trading partner after Mexico and ahead of China, similar apprehension abounds. Tellingly, neither Sheinbaum nor Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was invited to Trump’s inauguration ceremony.
Mexico’s president downplayed the lack of an invitation, stating, “there is nothing to worry about.” She noted that “Mexico’s ambassador to the United States will be there.” In addition, the country’s wealthiest businessman, Carlos Slim, and Francisco Cervantes, head of the Business Coordinating Council, were invited and have confirmed their attendance.
While the Mexican president's optimism may seem strategic, critics in her country are urging Sheinbaum to move beyond hopeful rhetoric and outline clear plans to counter Trump’s potentially harmful policies. More than 80% of Mexicans oppose the upcoming U.S. president plans to deport migrants or impose tariffs; even when 70% of the population is in favor of signing a security agreement with the U.S. and Canada to fight drug traffickers, according a Buendía & Márquez poll, published in Mexico’s El Universal newspaper.
Trump returns to power with significant leverage: his party controls both houses of Congress and a conservative-dominated Supreme Court could rubber stamp his agenda. Additionally, U.S. public support for policies targeting Mexico has grown since Trump left office four years ago, fueled by concerns over undocumented migration and an opioid crisis linked, in some cases, to Mexican cartels. These developments place Sheinbaum’s administration, which took office in October, in a precarious position.
“To me, it’s very clear — Trump is a danger to Mexico,” said political analyst León Krauze during a recent talk with subscribers of a leading Mexico City newspaper.
Despite assurances that she intends to foster a positive relationship with Trump, much like her predecessor Andrés Manuel López Obrador during his first presidency, Sheinbaum hasn’t been passive. Roberto Velasco, Mexico’s chief diplomat for North America, recently emphasized that Mexico has been preparing for this moment for months, and vowed the government’s vast consular network will provide protections for the 38 million people of Mexican descent in the U.S., including nearly 11 million undocumented individuals, according to estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.
“I’ve heard people say that Mexico won’t be ready, Mexico won’t be able to meet the moment. There will be a crisis,” Velasco said in a social media post, reflecting the pessimism many have about Mexico’s future. “But we’ve learned from the past.”
Sheinbaum’s administration is coordinating with Central American governments about promised deportations. Mexico’s president has shown a certain frustration of not being able to connect with Trump’s officials. She said they were unable to have any meetings until their confirmations in the U.S Congress.
Still, behind the scenes, she’s also working to demonstrate that maintaining stable relations with Mexico is in Trump’s best interest.
‘The Mexican-U.S. relation is already an old marriage and we have to take care of it.’
Authorities have stepped up efforts to curb migration, citing a 75% drop in U.S.-bound border crossings in recent months. At the airport in Ciudad Juárez, a planeload of 100 national guardsmen arrived recently to, along with U.S. law enforcement, help seal a clandestine tunnel connecting to a storm drain being used by human smugglers.
Moreover, security forces have also intensified operations against drug cartels, even in their strongholds, and recently have seized massive quantities of narcotics. In December, Mexican authorities confiscated more than a ton of fentanyl — worth some $400 million — in the Pacific Coast state of Sinaloa, home of criminal gangs responsible for much of the opiate’s production.
Such measures aim to dissuade Trump from enacting military operations on Mexican soil against criminal gangs, a prospect widely seen in Mexico as an unacceptable intervention.
“When Trump declares that Mexico is governed by criminal organizations. . . he signals an interventionist determination,” wrote political analyst Jesús Silva-Herzog Márquez in the newspaper Reforma.
The man-made tunnel connecting Juárez and El Paso, discovered on January 11, 2025, is believed to have been used by organized crime. Photo by Omar Ornelas//El Paso Times/Puente News Collaborative
Trump’s potential policies against his southern neighbor and largest trading partner are already creating ripple effects on both sides of the border.
Mexican border states like Tamaulipas and Chihuahua are preparing to receive deported migrants, though details of Trump’s plans remain unclear. At the state and federal level, officials are mobilizing resources and establishing diplomatic and economic strategies to mitigate potential fallout.
In Tamaulipas, one of four Mexican states that border Texas, the governor, Américo Villareal, said recently he was preparing his administration to receive deported migrants.
On the Tijuana-San Diego border, Mario C. Lopez, founder of the Border Group, a cross border public affairs firm, said California, along with County of San Diego, are taking steps to make sure vulnerable “people don’t feel threatened” by vowing not to coordinate with U.S. federal immigration officials. Baja California, along with Tijuana, have declared a state of emergency as they wait for possible mass deportations, Lopez added.
In the Rio Grande Valley of deep South Texas, grassroots organizations like La Unión del Pueblo Entero, or LUPE, and Team Brownsville are preparing to assist migrants and residents should deportation raids restart.
LUPE’s Civic Engagement Director, Michael Mireles, said his group is hosting and increasing “Know Your Rights” training classes to instruct migrants and local residents of the Rio Grande Valley on how to respond to police or U.S. Border Patrol detentions. It is also organizing a protest and march in McAllen on inauguration day.
Once the border’s busiest crossing point, the Valley has been largely ignored in recent months as overall migration has plummeted, reflecting the Mexican government’s efforts to stop migrants reaching the U.S. border.
Migrants are asked to sit down after being detained by Border Patrol agents in Sunland Park, New Mexico on Jan. 16, 2025. The migrants from South America had crossed through an area known to be used by organized crime to smuggle migrants into the U.S. Photo by Omar Ornelas//El Paso Times/Puente News Collaborative
Similarly, along the stretch of West Texas border the number of migrants arriving in El Paso seeking asylum has plummeted from 2023 when El Paso led the nation in “encounters.”
The region was among the busiest during the Biden administration with daily encounters peaking at about 1,500 people a day. But area apprehensions this month average about 150 people per day, with El Paso’s processing and detention centers operating well below capacity, a Border Patrol spokesperson said.
But despite the declining numbers in apprehensions, Trump’s crackdown is supported by many Texans, including those in overwhelmingly Latino counties, and the issue is still seen as a crisis by Republican stakeholders. The Texas General Land Office has offered a 1,400 acre ranch in Starr County for the building of a detention facility for an expected throng of deportees.
In Mexico City, the Sheinbaum administration is gathering data to argue against proposed tariffs, emphasizing their potential to harm U.S. economic growth and even accelerate its inflation rate. Mexico’s Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard, who previously negotiated with Trump when he was Foreign Minister, also unveiled in recent days investment plans to align Mexican trade policies more closely with U.S. priorities, particularly for ways to substitute in Mexico or North America China imports.
"You cannot have low inflation and sustained growth in the United States if you are at the same time very protective of Mexico and China. It is not compatible," Ebrard said at a recent economics seminar. “The Mexican-U.S. relation is already an old marriage and we have to take care of it.”
One potential bargaining chip for Sheinbaum lies in the energy sector.
Through the past six years, Mexico has tightened government control over this critical industry, almost closing it off to private investment. The tightening has left the country with underperforming oil, fuel, and electricity sectors. That in turn, has stifled economic growth and made Mexico less enticing for companies seeking to operate in the country, analysts say.
However, faced with mounting energy demands, Sheinbaum recently has signaled a willingness to explore public-private partnerships. As she navigates this delicate terrain, her ability to balance pragmatic concessions with steadfast leadership will determine the outcome.
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Yet, despite her preparations, Mexico enters negotiations with a weakened position. Recent constitutional reforms, initiated by López Obrador and supported by Sheinbaum, have raised concerns about potential violations of the United-States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA. Trump negotiated that deal to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The treaty is up for review next year.
Mexico’s constitutional changes, which diminish judicial independence and restrict investor protections by curtailing autonomous regulators, could provide the Trump administration muscle to extract concessions from Mexico, at least some Mexican critics hope so.
In the Mexican border state of Chihuahua, conservative cattle rancher Alvaro Bustillos agrees that Trump’s return represents a “huge challenge. It will complicate things.”
Still, Bustillo hopes Trump may also serve as a counterweight to Sheinbaum’s left-leaning government, and more. He explained: “Trump’s policy of going after China may help us consolidate a North America bloc. And for conservatives’ in Mexico, like myself, the Trump administration may also help counter overwhelming left leaning policies that threaten our rule of law” if not by example then by using the issue as leverage, he said.
Alvaro Bustillos is a cattle rancher in the Mexican border state of Chihuahua. He hopes that Trump’s tariffs on China will help consolidate trade in the North American bloc. Photo by Alfredo Corchado/Puente News Collaborative
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Eduardo García reported from Mexico City; Alfredo Corchado from Morelos, Mexico City and El Paso-Juárez. Angela Kocherga reporter from El Paso and Gaige Davila reported from Rio Grande Valley.
Eduardo García established Bloomberg’s Mexico bureau in 1992 and served as its leader until 2001, overseeing the agency’s award-winning coverage in the country. In 2001, he embarked on a new venture by founding his own news organization, Sentido Común. For nearly 18 years, he guided Sentido Común to become one of Mexico's most esteemed financial websites. He later merged his company with the local financial news agency Infosel, assuming roles as Editor-in-Chief and subsequently Chief Content Officer. @egarciascmx
Alfredo Corchado is the executive editor for Puente News Collaborative and the former Mexico/Border Correspondent for The Dallas Morning News. He’s the author of “Midnight in Mexico” and “Homelands.” @ajcorchado
Angela Kocherga is an award-winning multimedia journalist who has dedicated her career to reporting about the Southwest border and Mexico. In 2019 she earned a Maria Moors Cabot Prize from Columbia University for courageous reporting in Latin America. She served as Mexico bureau chief and border correspondent for a group of U.S. television stations. Kocherga currently is news director for public radio station KTEP in El Paso, and multimedia editor for El Paso Matters. She lives on the southwest edge of Texas and calls the border home. @AngelaKBorder
Gaige Davila is a freelance journalist based in the Rio Grande Valley. His reporting has been published in The Texas Observer, Deceleration, Texas Public Radio, MySA.com, the San Antonio Current, NPR, the Guardian, Mother Jones and more. @gaigedavila
Omar Ornelas is a Mexican photojournalist based in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico. For the last 20 years, he has been reporting on and photographing farmworker labor, education, health and housing issues in California, Texas and Arizona, as well as border security and Mexican and Central American migratory flows at the U.S.-Mexico border, for the USA TODAY Network. @fotornelas
Dudley Althaus has reported on Mexico, Latin America and beyond for more than three decades as a staff newspaper correspondent. Beginning his career at a small newspaper on the Texas-Mexico border, Althaus had an award-winning 22-year stint as Mexico City bureau chief of the Houston Chronicle. After a four-year run as a Mexico correspondent for The Wall Street Journal, Althaus covered immigration and border issues as a freelancer based in San Antonio for Hearst Newspapers. He has covered every Mexican presidential election since 1988, when Mexico's troubled transition to democracy began. @dqalthaus